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The socio-economic effects of licensing the SEA2 area depend on the exploration, development, and production activities resulting from the new round. There are many underlying uncertainties involved in estimating these effects. The numbers of Blocks nominated and the number subsequently taken up constitute initial uncertainties. It is understood that around 70 Blocks may be on offer in the SNS, 90 in the CNS, and 70 in the NNS. Many of the Blocks on offer will have been relinquished from earlier rounds.

In the 18th Round the take-up was not very high in relation to the number of Blocks put on offer. This round coincided with a period of very low oil and gas prices which probably influenced the interest shown by the industry. The present price environment is very different though much uncertainty remains.

The numbers of commitment wells likely to be offered in the new round are also subject to considerable uncertainty. These will reflect both the numbers of Blocks sought and the perceptions of the expected success rates. Exploration success rates, while less than in the 1970s and 1980s, have held up quite well given the maturity of the North Sea acreage in question. One reason for this has been the advances in seismic technology.

In the present context it is also relevant that much data on previously licensed acreage will be available to new applicants. It is also relevant that in some of the acreage discoveries have already been made. This could enhance the overall success rate, taking into account appraisal as well as exploration.

This report was prepared by the University of Aberdeen

This study provides forecast information on probable activity levels, capital expenditure, tax revenues and employment resulting from exploration and production in the SEA3 area.

The SEA3 area comprises 330 blocks or part blocks in the Central and Southern North Sea. Estimates were made of the reserves which might be discovered or developed. A cautious view was taken of the number of new developments which might emanate from licensing the area. The related exploration, appraisal, development and decommissioning costs were then estimated.


Economic modelling was undertaken for different oil and gas prices to calculate for each development gross revenues, development costs, operating costs, and decommissioning costs. The taxation implications were also calculated.

The impact of licensing the SEA3 area on the level of employment in the UK has been calculated. The proposed licensing would make a modest but worthwhile contribution towards moderating the downward trend of employment in the North Sea industry.

Starting with scenarios of possible exploration and development activity in the area provided by the Department of Trade & Industry, this study provides forecasts of oil and gas production, expenditure, employment and tax revenues.

The impacts of future oil and gas developments in the SEA4 area on the local economies of Shetland and Orkney will be small in comparison to what has happened in the past. The main impact will be to postpone or to slow down the decline in UK oil production. Nevertheless, production from fields in the area could make significant contributions to overall UKCS production, employment and tax revenues, as well as extending the lives of facilities such as the Sullom Voe and Flotta terminals. It could help to retain employment and population in the area.

This report was prepared by Mackay Consultants

This report assesses the socio-economic implications of licensing the SEA 5 area and sets out the results in relation to:

• oil and gas production, and reserves
• capital, operating and decommissioning expenditure
• employment
• tax revenue
• social impacts

The Department of Trade and Industry provided scenarios of possible exploration and development activity in the area and these scenarios were converted into optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. They were then used to produce forecasts of: oil and gas production; oil and gas reserves; expenditure; employment; and tax revenues. The implications for existing facilities in the area are discussed and the potential social impacts.

Report prepared by Mackay Consultants.

This "Economic and Social Baseline Study" provides baseline information on the key economic activities in the SEA 6 area, namely:

• offshore oil and gas
• offshore wind farms
• ports, ferries and other shipping services
• fishing
• tourism
• other marine-related activities.

A separate report (SEA6 Socio Economics) by the same authors assesses the socio-economic implications of further oil and gas licensing in the SEA6 area. This report may be used to assess the impacts of proposed offshore wind farms in the SEA6 area.

The report was prepared by Mackay Consultants.

This report assesses the socio-economic implications of further oil and gas licensing the SEA 6 area.

The Department of Trade and Industry provided scenarios of possible exploration and development activity in the area and these scenarios were converted into optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. They were then used to produce forecasts of: oil and gas production; oil and gas reserves; expenditure; employment; and tax revenues. The implications for existing facilities in the area are discussed and the potential social impacts. An underpinning report, Economic and Social Baseline Study, is also available.

The report was prepared by Mackay Consultants.

This "Economic and Social Baseline Study" provides baseline information on the key economic activities in the SEA7 area, namely:

• offshore oil and gas
• ports, ferries and shipping services
• fishing
• aquaculture
• tourism
• other marine-related activities.

A separate report (SEA7 Socio-economics) by the same authors assesses the socio-economic implications of further oil and gas licensing in the SEA7 area.

The report was prepared by Mackay Consultants.

This report assesses the socio-economic implications of further oil and gas licensing the SEA7 area.

The Department of Trade and Industry provided scenarios of possible exploration and development activity in the area and these scenarios were converted into optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. They were then used to produce forecasts of: oil and gas production; oil and gas reserves; expenditure; employment; and tax revenues. The implications for existing facilities in the area are discussed and the potential social impacts. An underpinning report, Economic and Social Baseline Study, is also available.

The report was prepared by Mackay Consultants.